Saturday, September 6, 2008

Yesterday Rasmussen, today Gallup

Gallup today has Obama's lead shrinking to 2 points, 47-45 over McCain. This is very good news for McCain.  This is based on polling on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. My analysis of the three day tracks (and it's hard to do--I admit I'm guessing a little) leads me to believe that Wednesday was a very good day for Obama. Unless I'm wrong about that (quite possible), or today is a very bad day of polling for McCain, I would expect McCain to be leading when the three day track is released tomorrow.

Now, before I get accused of cherry-picking polls, let's look at Rasmussen too. Rasmussen has it 49%-46% Obama. This is a one-point uptick for Obama since yesterday. I haven't done an analysis of the daily tracks from Rasmussen yet, so I can't say much about it, but Rasmussen gives us some clues as to what to expect in their analysis (both Gallup and Rasmussen do that often--they see the trend coming and hint to us about it before they have a three day track that verifies it).

As McCain has begun to chip away as Obama’s convention bounce, most of his gains have come among women voters. Obama still leads 51% to 44% among women, but that seven-point edge is just half the fourteen point lead he enjoyed last Tuesday.

This is obviously a Palin effect. Palin's speech is only in two days of this poll. You would expect that gap to shrink more when it's in all three days.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 57% (see trends). McCain earns favorable reviews from 91% of Republicans while Obama is viewed favorably by 87% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain’s favorable ratings are at 64%, Obama’s at 54%.

Rasmussen is hinting here at expectations of a bigger McCain bounce on the horizon.  And that last sentence is very bad news for Obama.  McCain has a ten point edge in favorable ratings among unaffiliated voters. In the end, unaffiliated voters choose the person they find most favorable.

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