While I think that 2010 has potential to be a very good year for Republicans, at least in the House, the White House seems likely to be out of reach until 2016. At this point, a 2-term Presidency for Mr. Barack Obama (D-USA) seems a near certainty.
How can I say that before he’s even taken his first oath of office?
It’s true that I don’t know what the future holds. His administration may be rife with scandal. He may be a foreign policy disaster. He may generate enough angst from the right that they’re able to rise up and defeat him. All of those things are possible.
Here’s what’s probable though.
What’s the #1 question in voter’s minds when they go to the polls to re-elect an incumbent or vote in a new President?
“Am I better or worse off now than I was 4 years ago?”
It’s hard to see how most people will answer that as “worse”. I certainly hope that most people won’t. That would mean that we really are in a “depression” and not a “recession”. Because otherwise, because of or in spite of Mr. Obama, the economy should have recovered to some degree by then.
I already said that this blog is not going to be a cheerleader for every little negative thing that will hit the Obama administration. I’m certainly not going to root for the kind of economic downturn that would benefit a Republican Presidential candidate in 2012.