Wednesday, October 20, 2010

AP Can See The Wave Coming



And it’s big.

All signs point to huge Republican victories in two weeks, with the GOP now leading Democrats on virtually every measure in an Associated Press-GfK poll of people likely to vote in the first major elections of Barack Obama's presidency.

But the devil is in the details. And they’re not just bad for Democrats, but horrible.

In another worrisome sign for Democrats, women now split pretty evenly between the two parties, 49 percent favoring Democrats, 45 percent Republicans. In 2006, Democrats took over Capitol Hill in part by winning 55 percent of the female vote to 43 percent for Republicans.

[…]

52 percent have a favorable impression of the GOP; 44 percent view the Democratic Party positively.

I can’t remember the last time the GOP got a 52 favorable rating from an AP poll. Not even in the post 9/11 aftermath was it that high.

Democrats have struggled to find a winning message in such tough economic times. This could explain why: Just a third of likely voters think the massive economic stimulus package — designed by Obama and his Democrats — has improved the economy.

They're just as down on other parts of the president's agenda as well, with a majority of likely voters opposing his remake of the country's health care system. They are divided over whether to change the law to expand it or repeal it entirely.

There is just no good news for the Dems at all in this poll. Every single line is bad, and it generally gets worse as you go on.

However, a small word of caution, and it goes along with what I wrote last week about the GOP possibly peaking too soon.

The more I study the pollsters, and the cross tabs, and notice the real variance between the pollsters on the details, the more I begin to think the following is true.

I have decided that the pollsters…all of the pollsters…don’t have any clue what’s going to happen on November 2. None of them have ever experienced an election like this. And what’s worse, the last election was also extremely unusual, in completely the opposite direction. So, they’re throwing darts at a dartboard when it comes to projecting likely voter turnout, and party affiliation.

Add to that the fact that off year elections are notoriously difficult to project, almost as bad as primaries, and I don’t think anyone truly knows where we are.

I’m not even 100% certain we’ll take the House. On the other hand I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 70 seat GOP gain. Or more.

For the Senate, it’s not much better. Somewhere between 5 and 12 seats. You pick the number you like, and you’re just as likely to be correct as Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, Gallup, Zogby, etc.

So, cross your fingers and do whatever you can personally do to get your candidates over the finish line.

Then, when you get home from work on November 2, break out the popcorn, prop your feet up and turn on FNC. It’s gonna be a late night.

13 days until the flood. Where’s Charlton Heston when you need him? Oh yeah. Too bad. He would have enjoyed this, I think.

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