Friday, November 5, 2010

Better Late Than Never–This Week’s College Football Update



Sorry so late this week. Been busy with election stuff and real life. Smile

Congratulations to Maryland, North Carolina State, Iowa, Northwestern, Central Florida, Ohio, Toledo, Arkansas, South Carolina, Hawaii, Nevada, and San Diego State, which all became bowl eligible this week. That brings the number of bowl eligible teams to 34. There are 35 bowls this season so we’re nearly half way there.

Condolences to Wyoming, Western Kentucky, Central Michigan, Ball State, Memphis, and UNLV, which can no longer reach bowl eligibility this season (unless the rules change). That brings the number of teams ineligible for bowls to 14.

There are 120 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (the division formerly known as D-1A) for those keeping score at home. So, if the number of ineligible teams reaches 51, we have a problem.

Ratings?

Computer top 5:

  1. TCU
  2. Oregon
  3. Missouri
  4. Auburn
  5. Boise State

The computer rating is a composite of a “Win”-based rating much like what’s used in the BCS, and a somewhat Margin-Of-Victory (MOV) based rating.

In case you’re interested in the breakdown, here’s Win:

  1. Auburn
  2. Missouri
  3. Oklahoma
  4. TCU
  5. LSU

In my opinion, my “Win” rating puts too much emphasis on strength of schedule (SOS), and therefore rates teams like Missouri and Oklahoma (with one loss each) too high. I’ve tinkered with it a little bit, but haven’t come up with a solution I like better. If I de-emphasize it too much I get undefeated teams from the Football Championship Subdivision (the division formerly known as D-1AA) ranked in the top 10, and I don’t believe that for a minute. So, I’m looking for a better balance, and I don’t think I’m quite there. I may have to change my algorithm completely, which might mean that this has to sit on the back burner for a while.

MLE (maximum likelihood estimate):

  1. Oregon
  2. TCU
  3. Boise State
  4. Alabama
  5. Stanford

MLE has Oregon and TCU as #2 and #3 all time, behind 1945 Army. I expect them to fall back to earth a bit before the end of the season, but we’ll see.

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