Monday, March 21, 2011

Updated Tournament Odds–Sweet 16



Meh. What does the computer know? 4 of it’s top 6 favorites to win it all lost this weekend.

Biggest upset of the tourney so far was VCU beating Purdue. Purdue was the second biggest favorite last round (in terms of % chance to win) at almost 86%. Instead of winning they got crushed. A few weeks ago, many were talking about Purdue as a legitimate title contender. Apparently they peaked too soon. They lost 3 of their last four games, and all to mediocre teams. And they didn’t look good in any of the 4 games.

Many teams % chance to win has now greatly increased. Not just because the field is so much smaller, but because so many top teams are out. The road to the championship just got a lot smoother for just about everyone. However, there are still only 2 teams with a better than 10% chance to win it all. Perhaps just as surprisingly, there are still 3 teams with less than a 1% chance to win.

Here are the updated odds (% shown is chance to win that round):

  Sweet 16 Elite Eight Final Four Championship
Duke 79.52% 63.59% 44.25% 31.26%
Kansas 79.74% 64.75% 33.18% 20.51%
Brigham Young 68.22% 40.02% 22.48% 9.84%
Ohio State 55.54% 34.87% 19.26% 8.65%
Wisconsin 69.60% 37.09% 20.00% 8.60%
Kentucky 44.46% 26.27% 13.25% 5.01%
North Carolina 56.66% 24.53% 11.34% 4.09%
San Diego St 53.28% 15.31% 6.42% 2.73%
Connecticut 46.72% 11.52% 4.51% 1.75%
Marquette 43.34% 14.33% 5.58% 1.51%
Florida St 63.91% 17.61% 4.33% 1.43%
Arizona 20.48% 9.58% 3.66% 1.42%
Florida 31.78% 13.05% 4.89% 1.39%
Richmond 20.26% 10.86% 2.57% 0.82%
Butler 30.40% 9.83% 3.19% 0.74%
VA Commonwealth 36.09% 6.78% 1.09% 0.25%

 

Biggest favorite this round is Kansas at 79.74%. Note that Purdue and Pitt both lost last round with greater than 80% chance. As did Syracuse with almost a 70% chance to win. The games this round should be quite interesting.

UPDATE: Another oddity. Looking at each round individually, rather than cumulatively, you can see that both Duke and Kansas have a better than 50/50 chance of winning their games against all possible competition, in each round. The worst round for Kansas is their potential Final Four game where they have a .3318/.6475 = 51.24% chance of winning, no matter who they face. Duke’s odds are even better.

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