Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Things That Make You Go, “Hmmm.”

President Barack Obama seems to be maintaining his bin Laden bounce. Yes, there’s some skewed polling going on, but regardless, his approval/disapproval numbers are the highest they’ve been in over a year.

His RealClearPolitics average is currently 51.2/45.0 and has been consistently above 50 since the first batch of polls following the bin Laden raid. Before that he was hovering around 45-47%. Eric Boehlert over at Media Matters for America can’t stop tweeting about it. I don’t think I’ve ever seen him this happy. And, he has a point. These numbers should be disconcerting to potential GOP foes.

Of course, the election is still 17 months away. A lot can change between now and then. And probably will.

But the poll figures themselves are surprising, and frankly, confusing. I believe America must be starting to buy into the Obama mystique again. And that’s a bad thing. But it’s the only way I can explain it. Because his approval/disapproval numbers don’t seem to have any basis in reality.

Also at RCP, the right track/wrong track numbers are 34.5/56.8. Those are very bad numbers for the President. Admittedly, they’re still better than they have been in months, but I don’t understand how a President can be above 50% with numbers like these.

And the right track/wrong track numbers aren’t an aberration.

Consumer confidence is at 60.8. A six month low.

"Consumers are considerably more apprehensive about future business and labor market conditions as well as their income prospects," said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. She said fears of inflation that had eased in April picked up again in May.

The index, released Tuesday, is still far from the reading of 90 that indicates a healthy economy. It hasn't approached that level since the recession began in December 2007.

90 represents a healthy economy. We’re 50% below that. Again, I don’t see how a President can be above 50% in the third year of his term with numbers like that.

Only 35% of people think America’s best days lie ahead, and 55% of Americans describe the economy as being in a recession or depression. And worse news…

More than half of Americans (55%) describe the U.S. economy as being in a recession or depression, even as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reports that "the economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace." Another 16% of Americans say the economy is "slowing down," and 27% believe it is growing.

So, that’s 70% of America that basically believe we’re in a recession or heading towards one. And Obama is polling above 50%.

I honestly can’t tell you what it means. As I said above, I believe that it means he’s getting some of his mojo back, and people are once again buying into the Obama mystique. Can it last? Your guess is as good as mine.

I would hope that by next April or so, when we know the GOP nominee, things might start to happen. Hopefully whoever that person is will be out campaigning and hammering Obama every day. Hopefully s/he will be reminding the voters of the Hope that they voted for and the Change they got instead.

Hopefully. Right now I’m more than a little worried. I don’t see how any incumbent President can be re-elected with numbers like these. In fact, it shouldn’t even be close. And yet…51.2%.

Wake up America! Time is running out!

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