Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Polling The President

A month ago I looked at the President’s polling numbers for the second time. I intend to do this on a semi-regular basis between now and the election.

To say that this has been a bad month for the President is an understatement. He showed little leadership during the debt ceiling standoff, and S&P and the stock market are taking him to task for it now.

As always I look at the RealClearPolitics averages. Any one pollster might have an off day, and may show some bias. The average tends to even that out. Eventually I’ll write some blog posts about that as well, but the earliest that will happen will be some time in 2012.

When I did my first look at President Barack Obama’s (D-USA) numbers, he was near his post-Osama bin Laden raid peak, which was on May 25th. May 25th had the President’s approval numbers at 52.6/42.5, a whopping 10.1 point spread. In the 77 days since then, his numbers have nearly flipped. Today, Obama’s RCP average is 43.5/51.2, a –7.7 point spread. 43.5 is the lowest his approval has been his entire Presidency, and –7.7 is the largest the spread has been by a full point. 51.2 ties the highest disapproval he’s had, set last September. He’s underwater in every recent poll, in fact the last poll having him above water was released almost a month ago, on July 11.

Last month, I noticed that Obama seemed to have reached a plateau for a while, due to an increasing number of undecideds in all the polls. The undecideds have made up their minds now, and they’ve all decided Obama’s doing a terrible job.

Consumer confidence near the end of July had rebounded a bit up to 59.5. This is still far below the magic 90 number that indicates a healthy economy.

Right Track/Wrong Track is at 20.8/71.8, a spread of –51.0, a fall of 16.4 points from where things stood just a month ago. Even worse news, the right track/wrong track numbers for the country were better on his inauguration day.

When I reviewed things a month ago, I said that things looked awful for the President. I think he’d kill now to have the numbers he had then.

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