Monday, April 30, 2012

Polling the President-April 2012

I haven’t done this in over 6 months, so it’s definitely time to restart this. This is my monthly look at how well or poorly President Barack Obama (D-USA) is polling.

As always, I’ll start with the RealClearPolitics averages. Today, his approval/disapproval number stands at 47.6/48.0. This is a bad number for the President, but it’s not terrible. People have been re-elected many times with sub 50 on their approval. And if this was the worst number for the President, it would be causing some mild concern from the White House, but no major fears. The good news is that this number is virtually unchanged over the last several months, and even a bit higher than last August.

Unfortunately, for the White House, that’s the bright spot in his numbers. Right Track/Wrong Track for the country is at 32/60.8. Again, the President can take some solace in the fact that it was far worse six months ago. But, if I’m a political consultant, I’m salivating at the opportunity to run against an incumbent President when only 32% of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction.

Finally, I take a peek at the Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board. The CCI for April is 69.2. Again, this is a big improvement over the mid-40s he was looking at last summer, and it’s in the ballpark of Obama’s all time high (70.4 from 2/2011). But it’s also a long way from the 90 rating that’s considered “healthy”. If unemployment numbers and GDP numbers released in the last few weeks are any guide, CCI will be lower next month, as well.

Starting next month, I will likely include some head-to-head numbers with former Governor Mitt Romney (R-USA). April seems a bit early for that though. Eventually, I’ll include battleground states as well, and start doing this more frequently, but likely not until sometime this summer.

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